Back to School: Flipping Districts 101

Why College Campuses Are Key to Flipping State Legislature Districts

This week of By the Ballot revisits a topic I touched on in my larger Road to Election Day 2025 piece—but this time, I want to drive it home. People always ask where the best place is to boost youth voter turnout, and I will beat this drum to death if I have to: the answer for state legislature and local races is college towns.

By the end of this, I’ll highlight one specific candidate running in the battleground district of my own alma mater, James Madison University (Go Dukes! 🐶), and ask you to support them. If you want to pitch in without reading the whole spiel, you can do so here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jmudems

But allow me to explain why investing in College Campus organizing is worth it first:

Why Investing in College Campus Organizing Is Worth It

Did you know... that college students are counted in redistricting—even if they’re not registered to vote there?

In July 2023, Politico published “How College Towns Are Decimating the GOP,” in which Charlie Mahtesian and Madi Alexander outlined how Democrats have been gaining momentum in local and state elections thanks to increased college student turnout in previously solid red areas.

Of 171 “college towns,” 38 flipped from red to blue since the 2000 presidential election. Just seven flipped the other way—and typically by smaller margins. Democrats increased their margins in 117 of those counties, while Republicans gained ground in 54. In raw votes, the difference is even starker: counties that trended blue increased their margins by an average of 16,253 votes, while counties that trended red increased theirs by only 4,063.

In Virginia, candidates with college campuses in their districts saw a noticeable increase in turnout in 2023. Many people don’t realize that college students are counted in the census population for redistricting, even if they’re registered to vote in another state. For example, a student attending UVA but registered in Pennsylvania still counts toward Charlottesville’s population for map-drawing purposes.

Virginia has 43 colleges with on-campus housing, which means at least 43 House of Delegates districts could be impacted in 2025 by more students registering to vote where they live. These students typically spend 4+ years in these communities—they have buy-in. Their votes should count where they live.

And at a time when student debt is rising and young people feel increasingly disaffected with government, Democrats must be telling them how we’ll make their lives better—during college and after graduation.

Virginia Knows This Works

Based on this data, the Virginia Young Democrats (VAYD) made a concerted push in summer 2023 to organize college campuses. We printed and distributed hundreds of voter registration pamphlets to college chapters in battleground areas, encouraging students to register at their campus address and take advantage of same-day voter registration.

We also invested heavily in digital outreach, targeting campuses with ads about registering and voting. We had support from the DNC Youth Coordination Team, which visited Virginia Tech, University of Mary Washington, and William & Mary—as well as from youth-oriented PACs like Leaders We Deserve, which campaigned for Nadarius Clark and Lily Franklin.

After the election, VAYD compiled a report on youth voter impact in down-ballot races. College students were a decisive boost to turnout.

In HD 41, Young Democrat candidate Lily Franklin faced off against Republican Chris

Obenshain. Out of 24,875 votes cast, Lily lost by 183 (0.74%)

The 41st district contains the entirety of Virginia Tech’s campus in Montgomery

County which includes off campus housing as well. The Young Democrats on campus as

well as the surrounding areas took it upon themselves to organize without a large amount of outside funding and were able to pull off an amazing turnout.

For 18-35 year olds in Montgomery County:

● In 2015, 3,386 Votes

● In 2019, 3,162 votes

● In 2023, 5,150 votes

That is a 52% increase from 2015 and 62% from 2019, an increase that brought the Democratic candidate that much closer to flipping this district to Blue and can still in the future, with more investment in youth organizing.

In SD-24, Incumbent Senator Monty Mason faced off against Republican challenger Danny Diggs. Out of 67,179 votes cast, Mason lost by 725 (1.08%). However, just like in HD-41, SD-24 includes all of the William & Mary Campus as well as the surrounding housing, and with the help of the Young Democrats on William & Mary’s campus, Williamsburg saw a boom in votes as well.

For 18-35 year olds in Williamsburg,

● In 2015, 106 votes

● In 2019, 593 votes

● In 2023, 1,301 votes

That is a 459% increase since 2015 and 119% increase since 2019. With more resources and an investment into youth organizing, we could easily close that 725 vote gap in 4 years.

In HD-65, then former Delegate and Young Dem Joshua Cole ran against Republican Lee Peters to reclaim his old seat that he lost in 2021. Of 29,154 votes cast, Cole was victorious by a margin of 1750 votes (6.00%).

HD-65 includes Fredericksburg City which includes all of the University of Mary Washington and with the help from the Young Democrats of UMW, we saw:

For 18-35 year olds in Fredericksburg:

● In 2015, 356 votes

● In 2019, 1104 votes

● In 2023, 1,787 votes

That is a 210% increase from 2015 and 62% from 2019 and with a

turnout out 1787, Josh Cole’s margin of victory can be chalked almost entirely up to the Youth Vote.

These examples show how college organizing flipped the House and protected the Senate in 2023. With more investment in youth organizing, turnout can go even higher in 2025.

Start Early, Win Big

Turn your attention now to registering college students on campus. As noted, they count in the population even if they’re not registered there—but when they are, we win.

We need to support College Dem chapters early and give them the resources they need to register their peers, especially in red-leaning areas. We can flip even more seats if we stay on this trend.

That’s why key candidates like Lily Franklin, Joshua Cole, Mike Feggans, Nadarius Clark, Kimberly Pope Adams, and Jessica Anderson all benefit from huge youth turnout at colleges like Virginia Tech, Radford, UMW, Old Dominion, Norfolk State, VSU, and William & Mary.

We know it works. Now we need to put our money where our mouth is.

We just have to put our money where our mouth is.

Support Democrats with the Duke Dogs.

I spent my college years in Harrisonburg, Virginia, graduating from James Madison University. It’s my home away from home, and I want it represented well in Richmond.

That’s why I’m supporting Andrew Payton in Virginia’s 34th House District.

The 34th includes the City of Harrisonburg (where JMU is located) and parts of Rockingham County—exactly where most JMU off-campus housing is located. A perfect match for the college organizing strategy.

Andrew Payton is a learning designer, a husband, a father, and a committed community advocate. He has chaired the Climate Action Alliance of the Valley, served on the Environmental Performance Standards Committee, and is on the executive committee of Renew Rocktown.

In the House of Delegates, Andrew wants to make healthcare and housing affordable, raise wages for Virginia workers, strengthen our public schools, and protect our environment.

Recently, the Virginia House Democratic Caucus added Andrew to their Battleground list, making this a mission critical race for our Virginia House Majority.

On August 21, I am co-hosting a virtual fundraiser for Andrew Payton with fellow JMU alumni Senate Majority Leader Scott Surrovell, Fairfax County Clerk of Court Chris Falcon, Arlington and Falls Church Clerk of Court Paul Ferguson, Lauren Gilbert, Daniel Green, Jamie Lockhart, Dave Mills, and Adam Zuckerman. And this is where you come in.

🎓 Donate to Andrew’s campaign today: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jmudems

Even $25 can help him register students, knock doors, and mobilize a winning coalition.

Let’s flip the 34th, send Andrew to Richmond, expand our majority—and have a little fun doing it.

TL;DR:

College campuses are one of the most effective, underutilized tools for flipping state legislative districts. In Virginia, organizing around universities like JMU, Virginia Tech, William & Mary, and UMW dramatically increased youth voter turnout—often by over 100%—and in several cases, made the difference in tight races.

Students are counted in district populations even if they’re registered to vote elsewhere, meaning they already shape the maps—we just need to make sure they vote where they live. With early, sustained investment in college organizing, Democrats can build long-term power, flip key seats, and boost turnout in top-of-ticket races.

The Virginia Young Democrats saw huge gains in 2023 using this model.

Now in 2025, we can go even further—starting with supporting Andrew Payton in JMU’s House District 34.

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How This Applies to Other States:

This strategy isn’t just for Virginia—it can be replicated in any state with redistricted college towns and tight legislative margins.

Here’s how:

✅ Check where college students are counted. Like in Virginia, most states count students in census population data where they live during the school year—even if they vote elsewhere. That means college campuses often define swing districts, especially in rural or suburban areas.

✅ Target campuses in battleground districts. Identify colleges in purple areas—where even modest turnout increases can flip or protect seats. Prioritize districts where margins are under 5%, and where student populations could make up thousands of votes.

✅ Invest early in local campus infrastructure. Support College Dems chapters, hire youth organizers, and equip them with voter registration tools, digital outreach, and early voting education. Start before the semester begins—not a month before Election Day.

✅ Partner with allies. National groups like Young Democrats of America, and College Democrats of America already run youth programs—plug into them for funding, training, and amplification.

✅ Frame the vote as local. Students need to understand that their vote matters where they live now—on issues like housing, reproductive rights, transit, and tuition. Make the connection between their daily lives and down-ballot elections.

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If Virginia can shift entire legislative chambers through college town turnout, so can Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and beyond.

By the Ballot is an opinion series published on Substack. All views expressed are solely those of the author and should not be interpreted reporting or objective journalism. I am not a journalist or reporter, nor do I claim to be one. This publication represents personal commentary, analysis, and opinion only.